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The Case Against Nominating Barack Obama (was: Electing)
(was: The Case Against Electing Barack Obama)
from http://www.hillaryis44.org/?p=488#comment-68940 

By Paddy White

After the 2006 November elections, the Democratic Party thought it had finally ended its long exile in the wilderness as a minority party. With a president that most Americans were deserting and a very unpopular and seemingly unwinnable war, the Democrats retook control of congress and a majority of statehouses for the first time in years. They eagerly looked forward to the 2008 election when they would reclaim the mantle as the majority party. Nobody would have anticipated the events now unfolding in the Democratic presidential primary that would destroy the best laid plans of mice and women. The spoiler came in the form of an African-American senator from Illinois named Barak Obama. 

One reason for the long dominance by Republicans has been their ability to consistently place moderates at the top of their ticket. Only twice has the far right gained control of the Party and only once with Ronald Reagan, did they go on to win a general election. This year, there is a challenge from the evangelical wing under the Reverend Governor Huckabee that will most likely end up being just that. Desperate to win an election they were supposed to lose, the GOP will rally behind the moderate and maverick Senator John McCain. 

Unlike the Republicans, the Democrats have been less successful in keeping their more radical wing out of the mainstream leadership. Since 1964, only two Democrats have been elected president and both of these were moderates. In all other elections they have lost and often by big margins. The Party has tinkered with the nomination process numerous times to give moderates an advantage, but so far it has not been as successful as the GOP. This has kept the keys of the White House out of their hands for many years. In the United States, elections are won in the center. 

This election, the insurgency campaign of Barak Obama has been able to lead the Democratic left to near victory through the use of new tactics that are nearly as creative as Jimmy Carter’s first use of the Iowa caucus to build an early insurmountable aura of momentum; something now common to all campaigns. For starters, Obama has used his base of African-Americans to win contests where they comprise a sizable portion of the primary voters. Because the Jesse Jackson campaigns of 1984 and 1988 proved that this by itself is not enough to secure the nomination, his campaign added a new innovation that promises to be used from here on out unless the Party closes the loophole. 

Borrowing a page from the early campaign of Howard Dean in 2004, he has mobilized a coalition of young NGO types and slightly older latte liberals. While Dean was unable to utilize a similar force to win Iowa and New Hampshire, Obama did Dean one better by building a political movement that was centered on his own personal charism. This is very different than the anti-war focused campaigns of Dean and McGovern. Most interesting of all, he has invented an unique election tactic, for the United States at least, whereby his core group of very dedicated followers, through sheer overexcitement that borders on coercion, can dominate a semi-democratic caucus to such a degree that voters feel intimidated if they support his opponents. As a result, he has since Iowa won almost every caucus and usually by hefty margins, even though state polls just prior to the caucuses usually show the vote to be very close. He has not done well in the large blue states that have one person -one vote secret ballot primary elections. 

It is now becoming very plain to see what must have been his underdog strategy from the start. Win the caucuses by using his new version of voter intimidation tactics and add to these, states where with large numbers of African-American voters. Since his major opponent along has been Senator Hillary Clinton, he has been joined by soft anti-feminist male voters. This combination has been giving him lots of momentum and money to set him up for a win in the last large states to seal the deal. It still remains to be seen if he can pull it off.

But what is very clear, is that if he is able to successfully grab the nomination, the result will be the return of the Democratic Party to the wilderness. The Republicans are on the verge of nominating the not-so-very-Republican John McCain. Pitting him against the likes of Barak Obama is like putting into the same ring a heavy- weight and feather-weight boxer to duke it out. You better have a doctor in the house. 

Unlike the Democratic Party that is proud of its rainbow membership, the GOP is still the party of the white male. No one should realistically expect an over-enthusiastic response for Obama’s mixed race parentage in hard core red states. It was not all that long ago that many of these red states finally removed from the books laws against inter-racial marriage. But America has thankfully progressed much from the bad old days and this will be the least of his problems. 

More critical will be his record as the most liberal member in the US Senate. The Republicans could possibly win on this point alone. The moderate McCain can claim to be more passionate about social issues and the environment than conservative mainstream Republicans and President Bush. At the same time he will promise to hold down spending and taxes. Obama will have little room to maneuver on tax and spend issues. If he moves to the center, he will be accused of flip-flopping and risks losing some of his base to the likes of a possible Ralph Nader candidacy. Staying to the left will seal his fate. Additionally, his admission of hard drug use will not exactly be the kind of role model that red state parents will want occupying the White House. Nor will it go down well with family-centered Hispanics who are battling to keep their own youth away from the stuff. 

Some in the Democratic leadership are fantasizing that Senator Obama can win the independent vote based on their support of him in the primaries. This should be made very clear. Senator Obama is not an independent but a liberal. Senator McCain is the bona fide independent. When faced with a choice between one of their own in the form of John McCain and the very liberal Obama, most will go with the former. The last Democrat to get a good slice of the independent vote at a general election was moderate Bill Clinton. 

But the real KO will come from a different punch. John McCain’s record is stellar. There are few people in the GOP today who can match this man’s life. Even his astonishing come-from-behind victory in the primary election only boosted further his reputation as someone who can be everyone’s American hero. In stark contrast, if he wins the nomination, Senator Obama will be running as one of the youngest persons ever with the exception of JFK. Unlike Kennedy, he can not even claim years of experience at the national level or in the military. Most people would agree that the times we live in are some of the most dangerous and difficult since WWII. In the end, voters will be asked if they feel safe giving this young inexperienced senator supreme control of America’s military might. They will undoubtedly feel much better if McCain is in charge. 

If the Democrats have any chance at all this year in beating Hero McCain, their best bet is with Senator Hillary Clinton. Her coalition of women, moderates, Hispanics, Asian and Jewish Americans, and what is left of the New Deal-Lunch Bucket Democrats, is this year’s real innovation for the Democrats and could be enough to give her wins in red-blue swing states like Florida, Ohio, New Mexico and Missouri. This coalition will make certain the Democrats remain competitive in must-win places like California, New York, and New Jersey. Because of the good relations the African-American community enjoyed with President Bill Clinton, it’s a safe bet to assume they will turn out for Hillary if she is the nominee. Clinton could lose the latte liberals to a Ralph Nader, but otherwise they will choose a moderate Democrat over a moderate Republican. In addition, exit polls are saying that most Democratic voters see Clinton as the best commander-in-chief. Running against McCain, this is going to count for much more than the Yes-We-Can mantras of the Obama campaign. 

For Obama the prospects of healing the rifts in his own party after a long protracted and bruising primary battle are not good if he wins. It can not be taken for granted that Hispanics, moderates, and maybe some women voters will be supporting him. Obama will have a particularly difficult time winning Hispanics who have voted with Clinton in the primaries. There is a history of animosity between African-Americans and Latinos in some places and Republicans have been making steady gains with them. Many women will come away from the campaign feeling the sting from his fights with Hillary Clinton. He has done little during the election so far to reach out to women voters. Many moderate Democrats will vote for McCain over Obama if national security and experience are a concern. And unlike Clinton, Obama may need to fight to keep the Florida and Michigan delegations from being seated at the convention. If he does, he will most certainly lose these critical states in November. 

If the Democrats are insistent on choosing Senator Obama as its presidential nominee, it will result in one the biggest routes in American politics. Not only will the electoral college result rank among the record losing campaigns of McGovern and Mondale, but it is very possible that the percentage of the popular vote will the lowest ever for any major party since Taft in 1916. Dragging down with him will be any chance for increasing the gains for Democrats in the House and Senate and is conceivable that they may lose one or more of these. By the end of the general election, senate and house Democrats will be running against their own presidential candidate in an attempt to not get swamped in the McCain landslide

If I were the Democratic Party leadership, Barak Obama, and African-Americans, I would be praying fervently for a Clinton nomination right now. For the Party, they face the risk of losing all they gained just two years ago and any chance of returning to the status of America’s majority party. The defeat in November of candidate Obama will be of such catastrophic proportions that it will set the party back for an entire political generation. Republicans know this and are already reportedly supporting Obama in state caucuses and primaries where crossover voting is permitted. For Senator Obama, his best prospects are to lose narrowly to Clinton. Time is on his side. This will earn him a ticket to the front of the line for the next one and give him time to gain needed experience and move to the center. He should know by now that his nomination will only set him up for an uneven contest with Senator McCain that he can not win. And if he loses big, there will be no second chance. His presidential prospects will be over. And sadly, it will be a long time before the Party seriously considers nominating another African-American. 

The best hope for the entire Democratic Party in 2008 is to get behind Senator Hillary Clinton. It will give the Democrats a fighting chance in November. She is the only one who can defeat McCain. Even if she were to lose, it will be so close it will not drag down the entire Party and have little effect on Senate and House races. The major difference is this. Clinton has put together a new coalition that can provide the basis for the Democrats to become the majority Party. Obama has not built a new coalition but has pioneered a new election strategy. There is a big difference. Lets’ see if the Democrats are able to figure this out before it is too late.